Valuation Map — stocks.clawmo.tech

Scatter Plot: Market Cap vs Forward P/E

Each dot represents a stock, color-coded by Forward P/E valuation range

Heatmap Grid: Top 100 by Market Cap

Sorted by market cap (largest top-left), colored by Forward P/E

Market Valuation Metrics

S&P 500 PE Ratio — 10 Year History

How many dollars you pay per $1 of company earnings. PE of 25 means you pay $25 for every $1 earned. Lower = cheaper stocks. The dashed line shows the long-term average (~16). When PE is far above the mean, stocks are historically expensive and future returns tend to be lower.

Shiller CAPE — 10 Year History

Same idea as PE, but uses 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings to smooth out boom/bust cycles. More reliable for long-term valuation. Mean is ~17. Above 30 has only happened during dot-com bubble and recent years — signals historically expensive territory where future 10-year returns are typically below average.

Buffett Indicator — 25 Year History

Warren Buffett's favorite gauge: total stock market value divided by GDP. If stocks are worth more than the entire economy produces, they may be overpriced. Below 100% = undervalued, 100-150% = fair value, above 150% = overvalued. Dashed red line marks the danger zone.

Earnings Yield vs Dividend Yield

Earnings yield (green) = what stocks earn per dollar invested (inverse of PE — higher = cheaper). Dividend yield (blue) = cash actually paid to you. The gap between them = profits companies keep for buybacks/growth. When earnings yield drops below 4%, stocks are expensive relative to history.

How to Read These Metrics

How to Read the Chart Zones

Each chart has colored background bands and dashed reference lines to help you instantly judge if the market is cheap, fair, or expensive:

Green zones = cheap / undervalued / good entry points historically. Yellow zones = fair value or above average — normal conditions. Orange zones = expensive — proceed with caution. Red zones = extreme / bubble territory — historically poor time to buy, but can persist for years.

Dashed yellow line = Historical Mean (the long-term average). Above it = more expensive than usual. Below it = cheaper than usual. This is your benchmark — the "normal" reference point.

S&P 500 PE Ratio

Price divided by trailing 12-month earnings. Historical mean is 16.2. Above 25 = expensive. Below 15 = cheap. Current elevated levels reflect strong earnings expectations and low interest rates.

Shiller CAPE (Cyclically-Adjusted PE)

Uses 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings to smooth out business cycles. Historical mean is 17.4. Above 30 = historically overvalued territory. Only exceeded during the dot-com bubble and recent years.

Buffett Indicator (Market Cap / GDP)

Warren Buffett's favorite valuation measure. Compares total stock market value to GDP. Below 100% = undervalued. 100-150% = fair. Above 150% = overvalued. Data from Federal Reserve Z.1 flow of funds.

Earnings Yield

The inverse of the PE ratio (Earnings / Price), expressed as a percentage. Shows what stocks "earn" relative to their price. Higher = cheaper market. Useful for comparing stocks to bond yields directly. Historical S&P 500 mean is around 6-7%.

Dividend Yield

Annual dividends per share divided by price. Represents the cash return to shareholders. Historical S&P 500 mean is around 1.8-2%. A declining dividend yield over time reflects companies shifting to buybacks and growth reinvestment over direct payouts.

Earnings Yield vs Dividend Yield

The gap between earnings yield and dividend yield shows how much profit companies retain vs pay out. A widening gap means companies are keeping more earnings (for buybacks, debt repayment, or reinvestment). A narrowing gap may signal slowing earnings or rising payout ratios.

Equity Risk Premium (ERP)

Earnings yield minus 10Y Treasury yield. Measures the extra compensation stocks offer over risk-free bonds. Negative ERP = bonds yield more than stocks (historically rare, suggests stocks are expensive relative to bonds).